Poll 99

Voters Continue Opposition to "Shall Issue" Requirements of Proposed Concealed Handgun Legislation
**Results drawn from an EPIC MRA survey of 606 registered voters in Michigan (margin of error + or - 4%), conducted April 21-25, 1999**
Over the past few years, legislators have introduced a variety of bills intended to change the way in which the State of Michigan issues concealed weapons permits. In spite of minor changes to these proposals during this period, a solid majority of Michigan voters consistently oppose the core provision of the bills, which would remove the burden from an applicant to demonstrate a need for a concealed weapon. Instead, the proposals under consideration today and in the past would require that local gun boards "shall issue" a license to any adult at least 21 years old who applies for a license and does not have a criminal record or a history of mental health problems. Indeed, a 70 percent majority of Michigan voters say that concealed weapon applicants should have to "prove that they have a legitimate need to carry a concealed weapon," with only 21 percent saying "anyone without a record of violent crime or mental health problems should be presumed to be eligible to carry a concealed handgun in public, unless proven to be a danger to himself or others." Surprisingly, this majority opinion holds across households regardless of gun ownership or NRA membership. A 61 to 30 percent majority of gun owners, a 69 to 29 percent majority of respondents who said someone else in the household owns a gun, a 59 to 29 percent majority of respondents who said someone else in the household was an NRA member, and even a narrow 51 to 49 percent majority of NRA members, agreed with the majority on this question. This result is, given the +/- 4% margin of error, effectively the same as last year's survey in which a 72 to 22 percent majority of all respondents expressed the same opinion on this question.
Majority Opposes Proposal on First "Cold" Uninformed Question
	On the first cold uninformed question about the proposal, a 53 to 31 percent majority opposed the legislation (41 percent strongly opposed it), which is three points higher than the narrow 50 to 30 percent majority who opposed the proposal without information last year. Strongest opposition (above the statewide 53 percent) comes from: incomes over $100,000 (65%); Democratic men (63%); all Democrats (62%); young, college educated African Americans (61%); households without gun owners with incomes of from $15,000 to $30,000 (60%); Independent women (59%); Democratic women who are union members, age 41 to 49, under $15,000 income, and college educated women (58%). It should be noted that a plurality of Independent voters (45 to 33%), Republicans (49 to 38%), and respondents who said someone else in the household owns a gun (47 to 40%), opposed the proposal on the first uninformed question.
Opposition Drops to Plurality With Information, but Returns to Majority After Arguments
	After hearing a detailed explanation of the provisions of the bill, overall opposition slips to a 46 to 43 percent plurality, although a 37 to 26 percent plurality still strongly opposes it. However, in a follow-up question where respondents were read arguments by supporters and opponents of the legislation, voter opposition returned to a 51 to 37 percent majority of voters saying their opinion was closer to the view of opponents. A 56 percent majority of Democrats and a 55 percent majority of Independents said the arguments by opponents came closer to their view. Republicans said their view was closer to the argument of supporters, but only by a 47 to 42 percent fairly narrow plurality. Survey respondents overall are pretty clear in saying their views are closer to opponents, and there would appear to be a great deal of disharmony among gun-owners and NRA households. While a 52 to 42 percent majority of gun owners said their views were closer to supporters, a much closer 48 to 44 percent divided plurality of respondents who said someone else in the household was a gun owner felt the same way. A 58 percent majority of households without guns sided with opponents. Moreover, while a solid 86 to 14 percent majority of NRA members sided with supporters as expected, only a narrow 47 to 45 percent plurality of respondents who said someone else in the household was an NRA member agreed with the household NRA member. A 53 to 35 percent majority of households with no NRA members sided with opponents.
Almost Half Know or Have Met Someone Who Should Not Get a Concealed Weapons License
	Forty-nine percent said they know or have met one or more people who do not have a criminal record or history of mental health problems, but they believe should not be able to get a license to carry a concealed handgun in public. Included in the 49 percent were 18 percent who said they know one or two people who should not be able to get a gun, 14 percent who said they know a few people, and 17 percent who said they know a lot of people who should not be able to get a CCW permit. Forty two percent said they couldn't think of anyone who should not get a gun who would otherwise be eligible, and nine percent were unsure.
Public Questions the Motives of Legislators
	When asked if they thought legislative support for the proposed changes arose from one or more convictions, such as "the right to bear arms" or "crime reduction", or if they thought support existed because pro-gun groups like the NRA have pressured legislators to support the proposals, the highest percentage (50 percent), said legislators were acting because of pressure from pro-gun groups like the NRA, 23 percent said it was because they really believed in the legislation, nine percent volunteered that it was for both reasons, and 18 percent were unsure. Even NRA members were close on this question with 46 percent saying legislators supported the proposal because they felt it was the right thing to do, and 40 percent saying it was because of pro-gun pressure. Gun owners feel by 43 to 28 percent that legislators are acting because of pressure from pro-gun groups.
Plurality Says Crime Will Increase -- Majority Says Accidental Shootings Will Increase
	A 46 percent plurality said the proposed changes will cause crime to increase, 16 percent said it will decrease, 32 percent said it won't make a difference and six percent were unsure. Since last year's survey, there has been a slight drop in the percentage of people who say crime will increase--from 53 to 46 percent, with those saying it won't matter increasing from 23 to 32 percent. Interestingly, the percentage of voters saying crime will decrease because of these changes also dropped from 19 to 16 percent. A 58 percent majority said accidental shootings will increase because of the proposed changes, four percent said accidental shootings will decrease, 32 percent said it won't make much difference, and six percent were unsure. This too represents a drop in the percentage saying accidental shootings will increase. In last year's survey, a 74 percent majority said accidental shootings will increase because of the proposed changes, 19 percent said it won't make much difference, four percent said they would decrease, and three percent were unsure. That represents a drop of 16 percent in the percentage saying accidental shootings will increase, a 13 point increase in the percentage saying it won't make much difference, and no change in the percentage saying accidental shootings will decrease. The response to these two questions may be influenced more by an overall drop in public concern about crime as reflected in surveys over the past year than by a significant shift in opinion about the legislative proposals.
Voters Feel Less Safe if Others Could Carry Concealed Weapons
	Some slight changes occurred in voters' feelings of safety from last year's survey, although these changes are within the poll's 4 point margin of error. Results from both questions still indicate that the majority of Michigan voters continue to feel that they would be less safe with more concealed weapons on the streets. A 64 percent majority said they would feel less safe if others could carry concealed handguns in their cars and while walking around outside, 22 percent said they would feel safer if they could carry a handgun, and 14 percent were unsure. This represents a four point drop from the 69 percent who felt the same way last year, and no change in the percentage saying they would feel safer. A 61 percent majority said they would feel less safe if other citizens could carry concealed handguns into public places, like stores and restaurants, 22 percent said they would feel safer if they could carry a handgun into public places, with 17 percent saying they were unsure. This too represents a four point drop from last year's survey when 65 percent said they would feel less safe, but it is also a slight two point drop in the percentage saying they would feel safer if they could carry a handgun into public places (from 24 percent). Although there was some slippage on these two questions, both changes are within the margin of error.

	The actual questions of the survey, as well as the instructions followed by each interviewer, and the cross-tabulated data from the poll, are on file and are available upon request.